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  • Aug 26
  • 3 min read

As someone who graduated with a degree in Manufacturing Information Management Systems and has worked with technology most of my career, I might be expected to embrace Artificial Intelligence with open arms. Over the last year I have begun experimenting with Grok and ChatGPT, and can certainly see the benefits; however, I fear this technology could have a net negative impact on society. Here are my main concerns:


Continued decline in ability to think critically

With the introduction of smartphones and short form media, plus the pandemic, I have seen a noticeable decrease in attention spans and the ability to think critically. Many books have been written about this, including one I recently read “The Anxious Generation” by Jonathan Haidt, which I’d highly suggest to anyone with children.


Teachers are reporting that it is becoming increasingly difficult to get their students to form their own thoughts, as they instead lean on A.I. to write their papers. There are tools being used to detect A.I. generated papers, but they are imperfect, and students can “tweak” small parts of the papers to fool the detection tools.


Elimination of jobs

Labor unions are already digging in for this battle. In many ways, this is like what we have seen for decades where labor unions have fought automation (for example dockworkers pushing to ban automation at ports). Marketing professionals are seeing their jobs replaced by Artificial Intelligence. Entry level programmers are finding it nearly impossible to find jobs out of college, as A.I. tools have become increasingly efficient at churning out lines of code. Many websites no longer offer a customer service phone number, instead you must first interact with a chat bot.


Jenson Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, recently said “Every job will be affected, and immediately. It is unquestionable. You are not going to lose your job to an A.I., but you’re going to lose your job to someone who uses A.I..” While I understand what Huang is saying, I must disagree with the statement that there will not be job loss. Having worked for a company in the past under the umbrella of private equity I know that some companies will absolutely use A.I. to reduce their employee overhead. You don’t have to provide benefits to an A.I. agent.


Ethical AI

There have been plenty of TV shows, movies (i.e. Skynet in Terminator), and thought experiments about A.I. gone "rogue". As A.I. continues to evolve will there become a point where we cannot control it, and it could decide that humans are a scourge and should be destroyed? While this may sound like a fantasy, I think it is important to place an emphasis on safety. In late 2023 there were large disagreements over A.I. ethics. Some developers valued rapid innovation over safety. One such disagreement eventually led to Sam Altman getting booted from the very company he co-founded. OpenAI was founded as a non-profit with a mission of ensuring that A.I. benefits all of humanity.


This reminds me of Google’s early motto of “Don’t be evil” which was a key part of their culture in the 1990s. If we fast forward to today can we say that Google never crossed that line? Lately, companies like OpenAI have been facing lawsuits from families who lost loved ones to suicide because the A.I. agent didn't alert authorities when the user said they had been thinking about taking their life. What responsibility should companies have in situations like this?

 

 
 
 
  • Jan 12, 2024
  • 1 min read

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After years of anticipation, speculation, and setbacks, the big day is here. On Wednesday, January 10th the SEC approved 11 spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). During the last year Bitcoin is up over 130% and I believe part of that was driven by anticipation of SEC approval for these ETFs. In the 2 days since the big announcement we have seen a bit of a sell-off as the price of BTC dropped from around $46,500 to $43,650. I'd say that was some savvy investors taking their profits from the gains of the last year.


So you may ask "What is a spot Bitcoin ETF, and how is it different than other Bitcoin investment options that were already available?" Well, essentially spot Bitcoin products give investors a way to have exposure to Bitcoin without directly owning it. ETFs track the underlying asset, in this case Bitcoin, and should rise in value when the underlying asset price rises. Other ETFs have been around for decades, tracking other commodities, such as gold, silver, oil, wheat, etc. While there were already other Bitcoin related products available to investors, they typically tracked Bitcoin futures (via derivative contracts).


Here is a complete list of the 11 ETFs approved by the SEC as of 1/10/2024:


  • ARKB - ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

  • BITB - Bitwise Bitcoin ETF

  • BRRR - Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund

  • BTCO - Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF

  • BTCW - WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund

  • DEFI - Hashdex Bitcoin ETF

  • EZBC - Franklin Bitcoin ETF

  • FBTC - Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust

  • GBTC - Grayscale Bitcoin Trust

  • HODL - VanEck Bitcoin Trust

  • IBIT - Blackrock's iShares Bitcoin Trust


I have to give some credit for VanEck snagging the HODL ticker symbol. Very clever!

 
 
 
  • Nov 30, 2023
  • 2 min read

Before we discuss 2023, let's first look back on 2022. As most of us know, 2022 was an absolutely brutal year for cryptocurrency investors. The market peaked around November 2021, and from there through the end of 2022 it was basically nothing but a downward trajectory. Looking at Bitcoin as an example, in mid-November of 2021 BTC peaked around $64,158. At the end of the 2022 BTC had cratered to to $16,548. The story was similar with other large market-cap cryptos such as ETH, SOL, and LTC. There were a variety of things that caused what became a 13 month bear run, some of which include:


  • The spectacular collapse of LUNA, a roughly $60B eco-system that went to zero.

  • The implosion of FTX, and resulting fallout that also caused other companies to fail, as FTX owed them substantial amounts of money (BlockFi, Genesis, and others).

  • "Cheap" money dried up, as interest rates began to rise and there was no more COVID/economic relief money available.

  • The failure of crypto lender Celsius Network, who filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in July 2022.

  • "Average" investors started losing interest in crypto and NFTs. When prices were rising everyone was discussing crypto as the currency of the future. When prices started dropping, people shifted their attention elsewhere.


For investors who hung on through the challenging times of 2022, the new year brought better news. While there were still some instances of bad news, such as Binance being fined a whopping $4B, and Changpeng Zhao (CZ) stepping down as CEO, there have been positive developments as well, such as:


  • XRP (Ripple) winning their court case against the SEC.

  • "Bad actors" such as Bankman-Fried, being flushed out of the crypto ecosystem, and receiving harsh punishment for his crimes.

  • Strong year-to-date performance for a variety of cryptocurrencies (see table below for examples):


Cryptocurrency

Price (as of 11/30/23)

YTD Performance %

Bitcoin

$37,784.20

+128.35%

Ethereum

$2,043.32

+70.74%

Ripple

$0.60

+77.76%

What I would like to see in 2024 is more clarity from the SEC on their position regarding crypto. It seems that they have been slow to set guidelines, and have instead just focused on slapping various companies with large fines. I have included a link below to an article by CoinDesk, where one critic was quoted as saying "Gary Gensler is a politician masquerading as a regulator".






 
 
 

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